EV Update

[mikesim]

As expected in the past few weeks it appears that the EV market has met engineering and commercial reality in spite of the politicians wishful thinking. They are finding that the "market" is a cruel mistress. Both Ford and GM are announcing huge losses in the sale of their EVs and are scaling back production. It seems that the general public is chary of their offerings. Plus the settlement with the UAW will make the losses to EVs an even more bitter pill to swallow. Honda is cancelling their joint venture with GM. Ford is postponing their much ballyhooed battery plant. Toyota is saying "we told you so", . The early adopters of the EV are find that their range anxiety has taken the luster off their purchase and buyers remorse is setting in. The lack of charging stations and the infrastructure to support the EV just isn't there. ICE vehicles are selling at a premium while the EV sits unwanted on the dealer lots in spite of recently announced factory incentives. I wonder if this will spill over into the motorcycle market?

Mike

 

[DirtFlier]

Honda's co-op with GM was only for the American market and mainly one of economic expediency. I saw the same thing happen when Honda got caught flatfooted without an SUV in the early-90s so did a co-op with Isuzu. Although the Honda Passport (rebadged Isuzu Rodeo) it was somewhat of a disaster within American Honda for various reasons, after one year the Passport became the #1 import SUV so dealers were happy. The Honda-LG battery plant in OH to produce EV batteries is still on schedule. My guess is that such batteries are intended for use in hybrids which is a much better way compared to all-electric drive.

The CEO of Toyota said a few years ago that Toyota would not go to an all-electric car lineup but would choose alternative paths. A wise man indeed.

 

[ST1100Y]

Several independent/private EV MFGs went bankrupt (WM Motor, B-On, Lightyear, Byton, Sono Motors, Next e.Go, Lordstown Motors, mia electric, etc...)

 

[RedLdr1]

The beauty of the market swing is this "collapse" just created a wonderful opportunity for me to upgrade my EV. About a week ago we traded in the Kona EV and bought a new 2023 Ford Mach-e Premium for ~20% off sticker. All the discounts just kept stacking up... And we'll still see another $3,750 from the Feds when we do our taxes. My Miles Per Kilowatt did take a hit. The Kona was averaging 5 to 6 miles per kilowatt, the Mach-e is at 4 to 5 miles per kilowatt. So now I'm averaging just below 4 cents per mile

I agree the politicians seriously screwed up with the way the proposed EV transition was handled here in the USA. They got away with their mandates when lead was removed from gasoline in the 70's. I suspect they thought they thought they could do it again. Europe is another issues as the EU has proved itself a 800 pound gorilla in issues many times. They are going EV whether they are prepared or not and whether they like it or not.

The CEO of Toyota said a few years ago that Toyota would not go to an all-electric car lineup but would choose alternative paths. A wise man indeed.

I'll bet he is doing a polite "I told you so" to several senior members of the Toyota board.

On a more humorous note here is a good picture of what happens if you miss a charge...

 

[RedNigel]

I cant remember which auto maker is working on this, but I think its Toyota...Ammonia powered ICE cars

 

[RedLdr1]

I cant remember which auto maker is working on this, but I think its Toyota...Ammonia powered ICE cars

The problem with ammonia, and hydrogen, is the refueling infrastructure. Just like chargers for EVs someone has to deploy stations that support whatever alternate fuel you chose. Hyundai is already selling hydrogen based ICE cars, the Nexo Fuel Cell, but only in very select markets in California. Basically if you leave LA you're on your own...that is some serious Range Anxiety!

 

[mikesim]

Ammonia is some nasty stuff! The infrastructure for hydrogen would be very similar to what we are currently using for natural gas and propane. The difficulty right now with hydrogen is the cost to manufacture commercial quantities of the stuff at a reasonable price.

Mike

 

[mikesim]

The beauty of the market swing is this "collapse" just created a wonderful opportunity for me to upgrade my EV. About a week ago we traded in the Kona EV and bought a new 2023 Ford Mach-e Premium for ~20% off sticker. All the discounts just kept stacking up... And we'll still see another $3,750 from the Feds when we do our taxes. My Miles Per Kilowatt did take a hit. The Kona was averaging 5 to 6 miles per kilowatt, the Mach-e is at 4 to 5 miles per kilowatt. So now I'm averaging just below 4 cents per mile

I agree the politicians seriously screwed up with the way the proposed EV transition was handled here in the USA. They got away with their mandates when lead was removed from gasoline in the 70's. I suspect they thought they thought they could do it again. Europe is another issues as the EU has proved itself a 800 pound gorilla in issues many times. They are going EV whether they are prepared or not and whether they like it or not.



I'll bet he is doing a polite "I told you so" to several senior members of the Toyota board.

On a more humorous note here is a good picture of what happens if you miss a charge...

Congrats on the Mach E Wayne! The reviews I've read are pretty impressive. Was there something about the Kona you didn't like or did the Mach E seduce you?

Mike

 

[RedLdr1]

Was there something about the Kona you didn't like or did the Mach E seduce you?

No and Yes... The Kona was bought as our "starter" EV to see if one would work for us. We've been driving hybrids for years but it was still a major change. So I bought a cheap base model that didn't have all the toys and the Kona is a smaller vehicle. But it did do what we wanted and proved an EV works just fine for our needs. FWIW when we bought the Kona local Ford dealers were charging $10K over sticker for a Mach-e so it was out of the running.

Fast forward a few months and Ford, and my local dealer, are drowning in new Mach-e's. I went on line and saw the Ford rebates so I called a friend of mine who is a salesman at my local dealership to see if they had woke up on the mark up games. He said come on down...we did and SWMBO picked out a Rapid Red RWD Premium model. It is a larger, much better equipped vehicle than the Kona. I think the Kona was faster, especially in Sport Mode, but the Mach-e wins every where else.

My F-150 SuperCrew Powerboost Hybrid is also Rapid Red so now we have Big Red and Little Red...

 

[karl]

Been driving my Bolt for a year now. Been to a DFC Charger six times now in that time. Plug it in at home at night and it is ready in the morning. Go a little over 4 miles on a Kilowatt. Things could be much worse.

 

[RedLdr1]

Plug it in at home at night and it is ready in the morning.

Same here. When I bought the Level 2 charger for the Kona I up-sized the required / recommended 30Amp unit for a 40Amp unit "just in case" we upgraded vehicles. When we brought the Mach-e home it went from 15% to 90% charge in about 6 hours so that upgrade paid off nicely.

 

[ST1100Y]

Europe is another issues as the EU has proved itself a 800 pound gorilla in issues many times. They are going EV whether they are prepared or not and whether they like it or not.

Well, if EV would be indeed so superior in every regard the ICE wouldn't need to be banned, it go instinct...

 

[mikesim]

Well, if EV would be indeed so superior in every regard the ICE wouldn't need to be banned, it go instinct...

Exactly! The market would decide the efficacy of the EV rather than the whims of the politicians in which case the transition would be much smoother. I'm not sure that the Euro's have the final word..... once the folks over there see the boondoggle that the EV currently is, they may force their pols into plan B. I'm not saying the EV isn't the future, it is just the method that stuffs it down people throats that is so unpleasant.

Mike

 

[suvcw04]

The first victim of EV only will be the tourism industry. If a motel can't afford a charger for every room, they're done.

 

[dnktng]

There is no low end EV market like there is with ICE. When an EV gets to <$10K it's because it needs an $8,000 new battery. Millions of people don't pay $18,000 to have a roadworthy ICE vehicle and simple can't make the transition to EV's. And most of them don't have the option of public transportation. These will be the victims.

It's not about making do with new technology vehicles, it about doing without.

 

[mikesim]

The first victim of EV only will be the tourism industry. If a motel can't afford a charger for every room, they're done.

Unless they switch their business model to a "no tell motel" to accommodate their clandestine local customers..

Mike

 

[ST1100Y]

Millions of people don't pay $18,000 to have a roadworthy ICE vehicle and simple can't make the transition to EV's.

Optimist...
Over here the micro-EV's go between € 20~30K... a tiny city car carrying 4 people starts at € 30K upward...

 

[rc_heli_nut]

Congrats on the Mach-E purchase. When I saw them in pictures online, I wasn't sure about it, but in person the vehicle is very cool, futuristic looking. Keep us updated on its reliability.

 

[mikesim]

Optimist...
Over here the micro-EV's go between € 20~30K... a tiny city car carrying 4 people starts at € 30K upward...

I don't suspect the Europeans will sit still for this either once it becomes obvious what the cost will be...
Mike

 

[ST1100Y]

I don't suspect the Europeans will sit still for this either once it becomes obvious what the cost will be...

The prices for used ICE's are skyrocketing... (can't do groceries anymore without finding my '96 Toyota covered with "wannabuycar" business cards twenty minutes later... )
Tariffs on the charging stations raised 56%, no end there... all (gov granted) former FOC charging stations have been switched to monetary systems...
Service and repair costs on EVs have exploded (complicated but build cheaply they're full of bugs, heavily corroding/failing braking systems/undercarriage, charging/capacity issues, doors won't unlock, systems won't come out of hibernation... many actually fail the annual MOT... recently I was caught in a huge traffic congestion as a Tesla seized right in front of two tramways, fire brigade came but no use as the thing locks the wheels... half an our later a fella came by ICE(!) cab climbing in to do some reset...)
But two issues bug me in particular:
- the constant omnipresent media/gov propaganda (feels like north Korea...), purely aimed to have people just run and buy something new... continuously ignoring the issues of mining rare ores, manufacturing, or where the darn electricity is supposed to be produced... or the current recession & inflation... whatever climate politics our little country implements, it won't leave even the tiniest trace on the global scale... we already recycle every shred of paper, plastic, glass and metal we can get a hold of in our household, but we're all still supposed to feel guilty...
- drivers of EV's feel entitled, ignorant towards any regulations, cutting lanes, ignoring yield/stop signs, etc...
dazzling everyone with their crappy LED head- & taillights is OK, but god forbid any use of indicators, might impair the range...