EV Update

[mikesim]

That vid is quite shocking. I was unaware of the danger of a VCE. We are constantly being assured that lithium ion batteries are safe but yet we quite often see the results of lithium battery failures. The airlines will not allow you to carry lithium batteries in checked baggage. I think that the death knell of the EV may no longer be consumer acceptance which is plummeting but the insurability of the EV. I'm sure that underwriters are looking long and hard at EV liability. You park your EV in a parking garage and it goes poof! You now are liable for the damage to the surrounding vehicles and the structure itself.

Mike

 

[ett]

That vid is quite shocking. I was unaware of the danger of a VCE. We are constantly being assured that lithium ion batteries are safe but yet we quite often see the results of lithium battery failures. The airlines will not allow you to carry lithium batteries in checked baggage. I think that the death knell of the EV may longer be consumer acceptance which is plummeting but the insurability of the EV. I'm sure that underwriters are looking long and hard at EV liability. You park your EV in a parking garage and it goes poof! You now are liable for the damage to the surrounding vehicles and the structure itself.

Mike

At one of my previous employers; they provided me with a new phone that had battery issues right from the start.
The camera would randomly fail.
Took a few months to learn the problem. Which was battery swelling up during charging and breaking connections for camera.
Upon learning this; a co-worker said:
"Hey I had one of those. I had similar issues; except with mine the battery swelled up so much that it cracked it's case and it also got dangerously warm."

 

[mikesim]

More unintended consequences of EV's....

Crash test shows electric vehicles may overpower safety barriers (msn.com)

although big trucks have always been a danger, the proliferation of electric vehicles could imperil many more safety barriers. The mass of EV's should also be concerning for highway safety as a collision with an EV is likely to result in more severe injuries compared to ICE vehicles.

Mike

 

[ett]

Sorry if this story has already been posted:

Electric vehicles will need 'battery passports' to enter EU from 2027
"
Battery passports will be mandatory for electric vehicles sold in the European Union from February 2027 to provide greater visibility of what has gone into them and where it has come from.

The digital documents will be linked to the VIN and a QR code that, when scanned with a digital device, will reveal detailed information about the sources and nature of the raw materials prior to manufacturing, along with post-manufacturing details, such as capacity and condition.
.
.
.
"

 

[NewTo700V]

The airlines will not allow you to carry lithium batteries in checked baggage.

I'm pretty sure they won't let you board with a Jerry can of gasoline either, but I don't see how that has anything to do with vehicles.

 

[DirtFlier]

Tesla Recalls Millions of Vehicles Over Latest Safety Flaw - WSJ

 

[mikesim]

I'm pretty sure they won't let you board with a Jerry can of gasoline either, but I don't see how that has anything to do with vehicles.

The point being is that the airlines are aware of the possibility of the lithium ion battery bursting into flames for no apparent reason. Some EV advocates pooh pooh the potential danger of the lithium ion battery. I have seen films of the batteries exploding and I have talked to several firemen who have had to deal with the battery fires. Until I'm satisfied that the problems with the Lithium batteries has been resolved. I want no part of them.

Mike

 

[ST1100Y]

The point being is that the airlines are aware of the possibility of the lithium ion battery bursting into flames for no apparent reason.

UPS Airlines Flight 6 ...

 

[NewTo700V]

Until I'm satisfied that the problems with the Lithium batteries has been resolved. I want no part of them.

And safety with gasoline has been resolved? How many wrecks involving standard ICE vehicles have resulted in firestorms burning those involved beyond recognition? I've passed by plenty of vehicle infernos in my travels, I don't recall any looking like a Tesla.

 

[Warren]

Consumers adopt new products at their own speed. Some want to have the “latest and the greatest” as soon as it is available. If you doubt that, just look at the lines around any Applestore on the day of a new product release. Others tend to wait a while before buying. Scholar and professor of sociology at The Ohio State University Everett Rogers is credited with introducing the diffusion of innovation theory in 1962, in which he explained how a product or idea gains momentum and spreads through a population or society. In his theory, he identified five adopter categories (see Figure 10.9).45

Figure 10.9 Categories of Adopters of New Products (attribution: Copyright Rice University, OpenStax, under CC BY 4.0 license)
Let’s look at each of these categories in a little more depth.

• Innovators: Innovators are the risk-takers in the market. As a general rule, they have higher-than-average income and are typically well-educated. They enjoy the “rush” of taking risk but are also willing to accept the consequences of failure. It’s the innovators who buy new products as soon as they hit the market.
• Early Adopters: Early adopters are actually the best target market for new innovations. These people tend to be well-educated “opinion leaders” with neighbors and friends, and their product advice is generally accepted more readily than product advice provided by innovators.
• Early Majority: The early majority typically look to the innovators and early adopters to determine if the new product meets expectations because they don’t want to take the risk of being the first to adopt the new product, but they do accept innovation before the “average person.” This group of consumers is typically above average in terms of education and income but also tend to be “followers” in their social group.
• Late Majority: Consumers in the late majority category are typically slow to catch on to the popularity of new services, products, ideas, or solutions. About 34 percent of the population will buy a new product only after about half of the population does. They’re not interested in the “bells and whistles” (i.e., functionality and benefits) of the “latest model” and want simple, cost-effective products that focus on specific uses. As a general rule, their income and education are limited, and they’re typically unwilling to take a chance with a new product unless the majority of consumers has already adopted the innovation.46
• Laggards: Laggards are more in tune with the past than the future, and they’re leery of new ideas. By the time they adopt a product, there’s probably already a new version or innovation taking its place.

 

[mikesim]

And safety with gasoline has been resolved? How many wrecks involving standard ICE vehicles have resulted in firestorms burning those involved beyond recognition? I've passed by plenty of vehicle infernos in my travels, I don't recall any looking like a Tesla.

You buy what you want and I will do likewise. Whatever floats your boat.

Mike

 

[mikesim]

It appears that Toyota is winning accolades for their measured approach to the adoption of the EV. They were wise in taking the time to allow the market and engineering reality to determine what the consumer will buy rather than gulping down the koolaid proffered by the politicians and wishful thinkers. To use an analogy from the early 70's, Toyota went with VHS while Ford, GM and many others went with Betamax. Sadly, I think we have only just begun to see the fallout in the industry as Ford in particular and many others are trying to figure out how to digest the EV losses and quickly retool the assembly plants to build what the consumer wants to buy. The next few years will be tough for the industry and the workers.

MSN

Mike

 

[ARKNT]

It is too bad that today's EV's (bikes) have many pitfalls. It would interest me to try one out. It would be a very different feel than IC motor and quite a bit of my riding is short trips to town for breakfast at the diner and run errands that limited mileage between charges wouldn't seem to be much of an issue for me.
But with all the questions and ongoing development, it does not look to be in my near future plans.

Arknt

 

[mikesim]

It is too bad that today's EV's (bikes) have many pitfalls. It would interest me to try one out. It would be a very different feel than IC motor and quite a bit of my riding is short trips to town for breakfast at the diner and run errands that limited mileage between charges wouldn't seem to be much of an issue for me.
But with all the questions and ongoing development, it does not look to be in my near future plans.

Arknt

The EV world is in such a flux that I think an EV purchase at this time would not be prudent. You could easily wind up with a white elephant.

Mike

 

[suvcw04]

Yesterday, I hit 5000 miles with my 2023 Ford Maverick hybrid. The trip meter holding all miles is 11 miles short because the truck had 11 miles on it when delivered, At 5000 on the odometer, the trip meter showed 4988.7 total miles, with 1241.0 electric miles. 40.5 mpg for the 4988.7 miles. Watching the dash movie showing the battery being charged and used, and the ICE kicking in and out, the vast majority of the electric was put into the HVB during braking and de-acceleration. So, most of that electric power was free. I would guess that more than 80% of the miles are highway, so the ICE is running most of that time, except going downhill. It has a small HVB battery, so it will only go 1 to 2 miles on electric only, IF you watch the gauge and feather foot it.
The Maverick has an eCVT trans based on a Toyota-Ford joint venture. No belts, no pulleys, sun gear and planetary gears. I have watched videos and I still have no idea how it works! There is no starter and no alternator. The drive motors serve as generators and starter and traction motors.
So far, so good. No problems and fun to drive. When it starts falling apart, hello Prius or Corolla Cross Hybrid.

 

[mikesim]

Not EV related, but perhaps it is..... just read yesterday where Shell is discontinuing hydrogen distribution in California. They have twelve fueling stations which are being shuttered. A spokeman for Shell stated that their hydrogen supplier could no longer provide a reliable source of hydrogen to Shell. It remained unsaid in the article but I suspect that the reason for the abandonment of hydrogen is because California more so than any other state seems hell bent on stuffing EV's down consumer's throats and thus there appears no future for hydrogen. The other hydrogen suppliers in California have not commented but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Mike

 

[RedLdr1]

So Shell is discontinuing hydrogen sales in CA. Those 12 stations are about 20 percent of all the stations available in all of the USA and Canada. Sixty five stations at last count, See Here, less the 12 going away. When a big player like Shell tosses in their cards it probably won't be long before the other players fold.

So instead of pretending it is all political may be Shell recognized that hydrogen is a wasted, expensive effort. Hydrogen, unlike electricity, is too expensive to deploy enough stations to make it viable product. Honda, Hyundai and Toyota have offered a hydrogen fueled car in the LA area for sometime now. No company has managed to sell enough cars to justify the effort. And look at the incentives they have had to use to sell those cars. Using Hydrogen for fueling public transportation went out with the Hindenburg and is about as likely to make a comeback as Zeppelins.

Read all about the hydrogen waste of time, money, and effort Here. Pay close attention to the Engineering section and you'll see they need a electric motor and battery!

 

[mikesim]

I wouldn't dismiss hydrogen that quickly Wayne. When they attempt to replace the heavy duty diesel powered transports with electric power, it will suddenly become abundantly clear that with current technology the energy density of the battery is simply not practical. If CA still insists on banning fossil fuels, then hydrogen becomes the most readily available fuel with the energy density to do the job. The folks at Shell aren't dummies, there was a reason for their decision to abandon hydrogen. I would like to know what it is.

Mike

 

[suvcw04]

If you think hydrogen is a waste of time and money, you should delve into the wonderful, corrupt, world of ethanol. It takes more energy to produce than it gives back. Add in the horrendous amount of water and the corn that could go into feeding the world and you have a boondoggle that Washington would be proud of. In fact, if it weren't for that boondoggle and $million$ in "contributions", there would be no ethanol.

 

[RedLdr1]

Mike,

The problem is deploying the network. There is Zero national infrastructure to deploy hydrogen like gas, or electricity, is already deployed. Just like public EV charging stations in rural areas hydrogen will see the same issues but amplified due to no existing infrastructure. The cost of the development and deployment, and the lack of customer acceptance even in LA , will kill hydrogen deployment. And I highly doubt the government, at any level, is going to jump on hydrogen deployment. They have already chose electricity as their panacea.

I do think hydrogen has commercial promise, for local trucking or taxi type companies, as they can create their own local fuel source. That could be financially viable.