Travel warnings

[Macka]

Continue to wear your mask for now Frosty. One or two of the other 29 in the grocery store will end up in hospital and you will be OK.
It is my belief that the US was too slow to put safety measures into place. Once the rot has started it is a catch-up game to stop it.
In OZ, we have been under pretty strict lockdown measures and we have had only 98 deaths from a population of 25 million.

Macka

 

[Coyote Chris]

Eastern Washington, Northern Idaho and apparently Montana has been spared compared to Puget Sound Area. Not to say that it will remain so. It is a Pandemic, so eventually a majority of the population should get exposed.

The first outbreaks were in the Puget Sound area. There were several nursing homes that the same staff members rotated thru. Apparently the possible source of the virus spread thru the homes. Public transportation and crowed public venues probably did the rest. Spokane is about 285 miles east of the Seattle Area. Spokane County has a little over 500,000 people and 386 confirmed infections with 29 deaths. The County set up an isolation facility early using the main building at the Fairgrounds to safely isolate hundreds. So far only 26 people were helped and none tested positive so they are looking for an alternate purpose until the crisis is over. The medical service industry is big here and a main economic driver in Spokane. We are blessed with resources.

Almost four weeks ago, the Idaho Gov established a rule that if you crossed into Idaho, you must be quarantined for two weeks. It was the day before Chris and I went to Farragut State Park in N Idaho for a picnic by the lake. I think Montana has established a similar rule recently.

That said, everyone should assess their own risk factors. We have not been anywhere close to other people except the grocery. Then there is the decontamination afterward. I have an Eienstein bad hair day hairdo. Just because they open businesses, it does not mean that I will go there. My sister refers to people who are gathering as "herd immunity test volunteers".

Scofflaw Coyote Chris visits Lake Pend Oreille and then escapes back to Washington by motorcycles with accomplice Frosty (4/17/2020).
View attachment 15629

Busted! $1,000 fine. So far Kootenay County has 68 cases and no deaths. I have a clear concious.

 

[Coyote Chris]

I find the Japan's covid numbers interesting. Measures in Japan are voluntary. One of the main things different that I see is they wear masks (and don't shake hands). Still are far as I know, the trains, subways, shops, etc are still open. In Japan, testing seems to be limited to people in the hospital in serious condition for establishing a treatment plan. So the testing and confirmed cases numbers are meaningless for comparison. The death report numbers are worth considering.

US Pop 328 million - US deaths > 80,000
Japan Pop 126 million - Japan deaths < 700

I agree that population density is a key factor to the spread of a virus. The numbers below may vary depending on the source and the US has large areas of relatively empty space, etc., but still Japan is almost 10x the population density. How is our death rate many dozens of times greater than Japan?

US population density 36 people per square km
Japan population density 336 people per square km

I will continue to wear a mask and hope others do as well. I was disappointed that I saw perhaps 1 in 30 people wearing a mask at the grocery yesterday.

In walmart and yokes foods, I am seeing about 50 percent but way too many family units going into the stores, with and without masks. I have no idea if mom is taking three kids into the store cause there is no one else who lives with them to watch the kids??? I also have no idea how day care centers can possibly operate.
On PBS NOVA tonight, "decoding the virus" they showed how Chinese are able to go out now. You leave your building and you take your phone and scan a squigley code. You scan another when you go into another building. A guard looks at your phone to see if you are a "green" person. Your temp is taken. You go into the building and when you go out, you scan the squigly thing again. You are being tracked and your health is being tracked and woh be you if you are caught being a yellow or red person trying to go out.

 

[Dee G]

I get that people die from this. They also die from the normal flu. I was exposed twice while in DC back in March. Nothing came of it. I have yet to wear a mask. I don't hose down the shopping cart when i do my 3 times a week shopping. The only thing that has changed for me is that we have to take our temps when we get to work and before we leave. None of us wear masks or gloves and there is no way to do any meaningful 'social distancing' in the center. Some of the admin folk are 'working from home' (yeah, right). There is some extra cleaning, though. But I've only seen the cleaning guy once, and he wiped down the surfaces around where I sit. If I want my console to be clean, I gotta do it myself. I usually wipe it down because some of my coworkers on night shift are slobs.

Many of my co workers have family members/spouses who are front line first responders. None of us are sick. From the hype, we all should have gotten sick and died at least 5 times already. I think we've had 6 or 7 deaths in our area??? All but one were over 70 and all had 'underlying health conditions'.

I don't know. Are we all lucky? Or is it because we live in a rural area and aren't crowded in some giant, over crowded petri dish of a metropolis?

 

[DirtFlier]

Frosty - yes, the numbers from Japan are curious.

The Japanese have used masks for decades when they are ill plus they are a lot more obedient than Americans who hold personal freedom dear as part of our national makeup. If they came up with a covid vaccine, all citizens would get the shots where here some (many?) people would refuse. All schools in Japan were closed early in the pandemic but other than that, they didn't seem to do anything extraordinary. They also have easier ways to track who has infected who.

I wonder if it could be somehow be related to genetics since Japan is an island with a homogenous population?

 

[NoNTnow]

I wonder if it could be somehow be related to genetics since Japan is an island with a homogenous population?

That is an interesting idea. Following that line of thought I know of some places where family trees are telephone poles so they should never be sick. I'll have to look up my ex-wife's family.

 

[Coyote Chris]

Frosty - yes, the numbers from Japan are curious.

The Japanese have used masks for decades when they are ill plus they are a lot more obedient than Americans who hold personal freedom dear as part of our national makeup. If they came up with a covid vaccine, all citizens would get the shots where here some (many?) people would refuse. All schools in Japan were closed early in the pandemic but other than that, they didn't seem to do anything extraordinary. They also have easier ways to track who has infected who.

I wonder if it could be somehow be related to genetics since Japan is an island with a homogenous population?

Genetics is a possibility. I am thinking more of culture. Genetics is complex. It is proven that the American first peoples are less tolerant of alchohol than others due to genetics. They also had no immunity to all the Euros' deseases that came with the Euros to the new world. In the US, people in the state of wa are bringing whole unmasked families on shopping trips....Wisconsin state supreame court says stay at home ill eagle...restaruants open and people without masks flood them. I am watching a 5 hour PBS special on Asians in America..they are more accepting of authrity.
In other news, Nat parks are opening. Slowly, but the gov of Wyoming is more accepting than the gov of Montana....who in turn is getting alot of pressure from his businesses .

Yellowstone to open 2 Wyoming gates on May 18 at noon

Yellowstone National Park will open its two Wyoming entrances on May 18 at noon and limit those visitors' access to the southern half of the park.

billingsgazette.com

 

[Phil Tarman]

I tend to believe the epidemiologists like Dr. Fauci. I don't believe the apparent success of some areas at avoiding the virus will last without social distancing and other precautions. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is going to be a long, long game.

 

[Miairhead]

Hard to trust Fauci, at first the virus was not big deal to him. Now he says going to kill everyone, unless with listen to him (he has been a bureaucrat for a very long time).

 

[DirtFlier]

Phil - I agree it's going to be a long time before we get back to normal. Two days ago, OH registered the 3rd highest daily death rate since this started in February so anyone assuming it's going away is playing a dangerous game. There doesn't seem to be any predictability because we had several days with the death rate dropping each day, then BAM!

 

[NewTo700V]

In walmart and yokes foods, I am seeing about 50 percent but way too many family units going into the stores, with and without masks

This is the biggest issue I'm still seeing, and other than Costco I don't know of any major chains preventing this BS. Single moms with little kids are forgiven, the rest are not. You'll see entire family units with both adults at the store. A parent with kids plenty old enough to stay home for an hour or so while the adult gets supplies. Teens out shopping with their friends. With school out, parks closed, these people are using shopping as an excuse to get out of the house and hang out.

 

[Miairhead]

The only groceries stores I seen with 100% masked are a local chain and Aldi's (which I go to early-so maybe latter in day not so). Both ask for ONE Family member to do the shopping. I stopped at a larger chain (Meijer), I saw people with mask on: it was on her arm! and only 50% masked. I've not been back since. I tried Costco, it was a made house (not old people hours), I just got gas.
Yes masks are a good idea, but you must cover both mouth and nose with a tight fit. Still we can not continue not having jobs. Might be a good way of cutting the size of government, of course it will not: just found a new way to grow.

 

[Coyote Chris]

I tend to believe the epidemiologists like Dr. Fauci. I don't believe the apparent success of some areas at avoiding the virus will last without social distancing and other precautions. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is going to be a long, long game.

I see this also as a long haul proposition, till a viable vaccine appears in quantity. Wyoming has had 5 deaths. The last one IIRC was in April. But if it gets into a veterans home, all bets are off. Still, I have made it through Polio, swine flu, SARS, MERS, and all the other bugs....
In 1968, this country lost 100,000 citizens to the HOng Kong flu pandemic. And we were much smaller back then. We didnt shut the country down. We got through it. The news media didnt come on the air every night and say, yelling. "We just obliterated the 83,753 death barrier!!!!"
I got sick in the 1958 Pandemic. I lived. 116,000 Americans didnt. Our country was 174 million. Roughly half what it is today. That's like looseing 200,000 today. No shut down, no panic, no hysterical media. People went to their NT rallys like they did during Polio.

 

[Coyote Chris]

The only groceries stores I seen with 100% masked are a local chain and Aldi's (which I go to early-so maybe latter in day not so). Both ask for ONE Family member to do the shopping. I stopped at a larger chain (Meijer), I saw people with mask on: it was on her arm! and only 50% masked. I've not been back since. I tried Costco, it was a made house (not old people hours), I just got gas.
Yes masks are a good idea, but you must cover both mouth and nose with a tight fit. Still we can not continue not having jobs. Might be a good way of cutting the size of government, of course it will not: just found a new way to grow.

The mask situation is sad. My doc told me to stock pile in 2003 and 2009, which I did...quality masks....they werent cheep...N100s with the neopreane seal cost $6 IIRC. This country went into the 2009 pandemic with 3.4 billion N95 masks...it depleted them down to 12 million for this pandemic. The govt said, "We TOLD the hospitals they would have to stockpile." The Hospitals told the feds, "We cant affort it" No one told us to stockpile at home. Except my doc. When I ask her, "How did you KNOW????" She just smiles.....
People think those face rags that you can see through will protect them.....
The only thing that will help people who wear masks is an N95 or better. So where's the masks?

 

[Phil Tarman]

Hard to trust Fauci, at first the virus was not big deal to him. Now he says going to kill everyone, unless with listen to him (he has been a bureaucrat for a very long time).

My friend, you hear Dr. Fauci differently than I do. At the first, I heard him saying that it wasn't clear how bad it would be, but that it would be manageable. And, if the things that needed to be done then had been done, I believe it would have been more manageable than it has been. Now, I don't hear him saying that it's going to kill everyone, but that unless we do the things that we need to do, it's going to kill more people than it needs to kill -- including old people like you and me. I don't think he's just giving his own individual opinion, but the opinion shared by most epidemiologists who've studied pandemics and novel (new) viruses like SARS, Ebola, and N1SN.

My son-in-law, the gun dealer, and I don't agree on much of anything, except that we both love my daughter. Rich had N1S1 in the 90s and nearly died and he believes Dr. Fauci's predictions and he and my daughter have completely isolated themselves since very early in March. If Rich believes Dr. Fauci, my guess is that the good doctor's science outweighs politics by a considerable amount.

You are, of course, entitled to your opinions and I, of course, am entitled to disagree vehemently with you.

 

[Phil Tarman]

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but here is an example of what I mean about letting politics guide us instead of science. This was said today by a major political leader:

"When you test, you have a case. When you test you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases. They don't want to write that. It's common sense. We test much more."

Huh? That kind of stuff isn't going to guide any of my decisions.

 

[Frosty]

Beware: Opinion which may be construed as adding to the pooling of ignorance. (Comment from old prof RE: discussion by lay people.)
I like Dr Fauci. You have to listen very carefully to what he says and what he doesn't. I think that he got burned early as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Early on, his boss promised an aids immunization vaccine within 2 years. That was over 30+ years ago and still no vaccine. Fauci was not treated kindly by the affected community. He tries to stay away from politics which would be nice if that were more widespread. Ask a scientist when this will end with scientific certainty and they will tell you to ask again in a few years and then wait some for an answer.

This is a Pandemic. Socially distancing and shutting things down will flatten the curve, but eventually most of the population will be exposed. From the earliest pronouncements by experts, they said that 40 - 70% will be exposed. The social distancing is kicking the can down the road a bit to keep from overwhelming medical facilities. Once we leave the house will infections increase? YES. How it is managed is the trick.

Wear masks, wear masks, wear masks. This is an airborne transmitted virus that principally attacks the respiratory system. You mostly inhale an infectious dose of the virus material. If someone coughs or sneezes on something or in their hands and touches something. Then you might get some virus by touching it and then if you touch your nose, eyes, or face. A mask will remind you to not pick your nose.

The super infection that Chris mentioned was a choir practice with social spacing. Basically you had all of these people forcefully inhaling and exhaling while they sang. It apparently was a very effective way to spread it.

A poorly fitting mask is better than no mask. A cheap mask is better than no mask. A homemade mask is better than no mask. In the end, please do what you need to do to keep yourself safe. There are plenty of "herd immunity test volunteers" out there.

 

[DirtFlier]

I don't slight Dr Fauci for trying to keep some sense of caution in pronouncements from the WH. Right now, every state is free to do what it wants which is the wrong way to go during a pandemic. We badly need a national standard & protocol for handling this situation!

I always wear a mask when entering any business and when I go on a ride with my pals and we stop at a park to have lunch, we sit way apart from each other - often on separate benches! Stay safe out there!

 

[Frosty]

I think that you are doing right things. Chris posted a link to a Sweden article elsewhere here. That article and the one I posted about Japan seem to reinforce my thoughts about personal responsibility and how important it is.

I think the Federal Government can issue guidelines and policies, but it is up to the state governments to govern locally. In Spokane, today's news included another medical clinic is closing financially because patients are not allowed to be treated. My friend's cancer treatments were discontinued because of state orders. Governor's office says the PPE must be conserved in case of virus breakout, so elective procedures like cancer treatments, cardiac procedures, and so on, are not allowed. There are unintended consequences for almost every decision. Medical professionals are being furloughed and losing their jobs due to a medical crisis????

 

[Miairhead]

Georgia is not experiencing a huge increase and has open much of the state. I will watch the states that open up and see if these health experts that would drive the country into a total collapse are right. There is always ways to control a pandemic with out closing every thing.