Over on ST-Owners we were chatting about the video by FortNine about how Harley killed itself and the question of global motorcycle sales came up - so I googled the data and wrote this post. I think it contains some data which is germane to this discussion too.
Pete
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One thing to remember is that to us, the North American and European motorcycle markets are big - but the fact is that we are a very tiny part of the bike-buying world (well under 4% of the global total and North America is under half that amount - see the data below).
For every ST or GL (or Concours or FJR) sold by the J4 or
Road King Superglide Chromematic Brontosaurus Ultra sold by HD in North America or Europe, somewhere else in the world, somebody is selling
literally hundreds of
other bikes. Some of those “
someones” are Honda, Kawasaki, Yamaha and Suzuki and yes, a few Bimmers, Ducatis, Triumphs and KTMs as well (along with Royal Enfield, Hyosung and others whose names escape me) - but it ain’t Harley Davidson. If you go to India or China, or Indonesia, or anywhere in Africa, you see domestic brands and J4 bikes by the zillion on every road - but you’ll wait a loong time to see a Harley go by.
Here is some real data to consider (from Statista.com - 2018 Global Motorcycle Sales):
- Asia-Pacific: 108.8 million (more than 82% of global motorcycle sales)
- Africa-Middle East: 10.1 million
- Central & S. America: 8.1 million
- Western Europe: 3.03 million
- North America: 1.93 million (less than 1.5% of the total)
- TOTAL: 132 million sales globally
So, as Ryan said in the FortNine video (which is excellent IMO), many years ago Harley Davidson doubled-down on a very small market niche of “true believers and outlaws and now those people have all the bikes they need and that demographic is aging-out on the Motor Company. Meanwhile they wasted the breathing room that Reagan gave them through 700 cc import tariffs of the 1980s, by failing to develop appealing new products - and now they have nothing to sell to any other larger markets and they have nothing to sell to the shrinking pool of domestic (ie. North American) riders who are selecting other brands (as confirmed by Harley’s
own sales data). Harley is only a bit player in Europe and even smaller anywhere else. If they can’t live in North America, they will die here.
...and yes, you do see a lot of Harleys on the road -
today - but
their own sales figures don’t lie and so give it a few years and I suspect that number will shrink as the owners age and stop riding.
Finally, I suspect that many of the Harleys you see on the road today were sold new 5-15 years ago when things were perking along well for them (and they were failing to look at their sales demographic and develop appealing new products). It’s the
new sales that really matter to a business - not how many of their products you see on the road today. That only tells you about history - except for tee-shirt sales, used motorcycles don’t impact corporate profits today.
If you go to a BSA vintage rally next week - you will see a lot of BSAs - but just try to buy a new one....
I’m not happy about it - but the conclusion seems inescapable from the data and as some journalists say: “
facts matter”.
Pete
